Un fantasma Ronda Europa. Fantasma de Donald descends.
Muchos tomadores de decision europeos admiten que los sorprendieron sin querer elegir a Trump como presidente de los Estados Unidos en 2016. Están decididos a no volver a cometer el mismo error.
But knowing that Trump could win the presidency in 2024 and knowing what to do in respect are two different things. So much more that Trump’s second presidency can be even more radical and unpredictable than the first one.
In Europe, the most expected and feared adjustment would be sudden change in American politics towards Ukraine. Trump boasted that he could put an end to the war in Ukraine in one day. Como president, tenia a historic de Hostilidad hacia el gobierno de Zelensky, que no cooperó con sus eforts por implicar a Hunter Biden en la corrupción.
Los Países de la Otan, Encabezados por Estados Unidos, Disen Una Otra Vez Que Haran “Lo qu’ Bahr Necessario” Para Ayudar and Kiev a Ganar. Pero si Trump Sommet a Ukraina a un corte de ayuda al estilo de afghanistan, los europa no tenran suficiente equipo militar para mantener a Ukrania en Marcha. The United States is also in conditions of drastically cutting the budgetary support that Kiev depends on.
El Gobierno de Polonia, que proviene de la derecha populista, tiene Buenos recuerdos de Trump. Como President, pronunció su discurso más importante en Europa and Varsovia. The conservative nationalism is based on the fundamentalism of the governing Party Law and Justice (PiS) of Poland very close to the ideology of Trump’s key advisers, like Stephen Miller.
Pero la afnidad ideologica to ley yo justicia et trump puede segarlos ante el peligro de la retirada nshaina de estados unidos de apoyar a ukrania. This would leave the countries closest to Russia, including Poland, high, dry and in the first line. If Trump combines the rupture of ties with Ukraine at the same time that he reinforces his highly publicized suspicion about NATO, there will be a generalized security panic in Europe. Y isto, a su vez, dara un nuevo impulso a una rusia debilitada.
In the long run, Trump’s second presidency can push the Europeans to seek the “strategic independence” of the United States that French President Emmanuel Macron has demanded for a long time. But this type of transformation requires time and money. Europa Care de Ambos.
The chances of Europe falling into a security crisis due to Trump’s presidency are increased by the fact that there is a strong mental tension in republican circles that argue that EE. Uuuuu. It should concentrate all its resources in the challenge of China, leaving Europe to carry the burden of the supposed menor threat posed by Russia.
Both the Trump administration and the Biden administration have adopted more conflictive policies towards China, increasing restrictions on commerce and strengthening the alliance network of the EU. Uuuuu. en Asia. Al notar esta tendency, a Chinese politician recently argued that Beijing could remain largely indifferent to the outcome of the presidential elections in the EU. Uuuuu. Quien gane, dijo, probably será más de lo mismo.
But Trump is highly invincible. Others in Beijing are concerned that they will empower some of the most aggressive voices in Washington, such as Mike Pompeo, ex-Secretary of the State of Trump, who has asked the United States to recognize Taiwan as an independent country. China has always insisted that the independence of Taiwan means war.
Sin ban, los instintos de trump son aislacionistas. Un libro bien recibido sobre sus políticas hacia China, durante su primer mandato, affirma que Trump ha dejado claro, en privado, que no tiene intención de defend a Taiwan. If this indifference to the destiny of Taiwan becomes more evident during the second term of Trump, it will encourage Beijing and alarm the allies of the United States in the region.
C trumpet debilita seriously la presencia de seguridad de EE. Uuuuu. N Asia, Japan, Korea del Sur and Australia Enfrentaran un Agudo Dilemma de Seguridad. A possible answer would be the development of nuclear weapons. La otra cosa es ir en la direcion opusta y cambiar hacia apaciguar a china.
There are, por supuesto, algunos países y leaders que unequivocamente le darían la bienvenida a Trump de regreso a la Casa Blanca. Among them are Benjamin Netanyahu’s Israel, Viktor Orban’s Hungary and Mohammed bin Salman’s Saudi Arabia. Todos estos gobiernos han sido hyasiados, pero solo modadamente, por líderes de partidos democraticos por abusos a los derechos humos or retroceso democratico. Trump’s indifference to this type of concern, and his vulnerability to powerful leaders, will turn him into a popular option in Riyadh, Jerusalem and Budapest.
The prohibition of sin, Trump’s own rhetoric suggests that he is more concerned about vengarse de sus enemigos domésticos que por el mundo exterior. Una segunda presidency de trumpet podría hacer que el gobierno de EE. Uuuuu. se sumerja en el chaos while the White House seeks to purge the “estado profundo”, putting Trump’s loyalists in charge of key institutions such as the FBI and the Department of Justice.
Los Aliados de Estados Unidos no Podia Asumir que lo que pasó en Washington permanerá en Washington. El autoritarismo progresivo y la erosion de la independencia judicial en Hungría, Polonia y Turquia son preocupaciones reales para los Aliados de la Otan y los Socios de la UE de esos países. But it would be much more important if an American president follows politics in the style of Orban. Estados Unidos Ciego Ciendo La Piedra Angular de la Alianza Occidental. C Isa Roca Cominza a Desmoronarse, Los Aliados de Estados Unidos Estaran and Serious Problems.
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